Gregory Travis

SARS-CoV-2/COVID Graphs. (Click HERE for GRAPH FAQ)

Please read the GRAPH FAQ first
How to interpret the graphs

• MOST IMPORTANT THING TO KEEP IN MIND: Because of delays in symptom onset (incubation delay), delays before death, delays before recovery, etc. none of the data here shows us what things are like today. As you review this data keep in mind that what you are seeing is a picture of what the world looked like three weeks ago.
• US Growth in new infections running at 42% a day as of today (five day moving average). Possible sign that wide-spread testing is beginning to take hold but also consistent with expected early stage growth rates.
• Growth in Taiwan's daily infection rate: Could this be due to elite Taiwanese returning to Taiwan after escaping the country in early stages of the disease? Growth continues as well as an uptick in Taiwan's death rate.
• Most "SARS Countries" are stabilizing at a computed 5% death rate (China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong). Japan is upper outlier at 20% fatality rate. Singapore is lower outlier at 0% fatality rate. Hard to believe the Singapore numbers.
• I have added a "5% projection" chart to the data. This chart is intended to show what growth would be like in the affected countries/states if growth can be held to 5% (bend the curve!). In most cases dramatically lowered infection/deaths are the result. Keep your distance!
• Have begun adding individual charts for a select set of US states. US state level data is, as of today, EXTREMELY "jittery." Result is that some of the projections (Illinois, New York in particular) are ridiculous — New York's prediction right now predicts more infected than the entire state population. I think as we get a few more days worth of data from the states that projections will converge on more realistic numbers.
• That said, a reminder that all of my charts are based on OFFICIAL data. What does that mean? In general the official data dramatically underestimates the total number of infected as well as the number who have recovered from the disease. For instance, in my home state of Indiana the official data says 86 infected (yesterday). According to our own health experts, the real number is close to 100,000. In neighboring Ohio, the official number is 173. Ohio's health experts believe the actual number is closer to 200,000.
• You may notice negative death rates on some of the states. This is because, for reasons I do not understand, the Johns Hopkins/WHO data has "rescinded" several recoveries/deaths in the last couple days' worth of data. For instance, Illinois was reporting two recovered earlier this week. Last night it started reporting zero recovered. That hurts my computer's brain.
• Because of the above and some other factors, I have closed my moving average window slightly from seven days to five which seems to improve the believability of the numbers a bit. I'll continue to watch the data as it comes in and conduct sanity checks.
• All indications continue to support position that COVID-19 disease is expanding out of control at an average rate of 25-35% in the Western democracies (i.e. doubling every one or two days) and estimates of 2 million dead eventually are probably understating the case. I predict the final death count will be closer to 10 million worldwide absent dramatic effects from social distancing efforts.
• SARS nations (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Canada) appear to have disease under control although there are troubling signs in Taiwan. And Canada is not under control.

• US Growth in new infections running at 75% a day as of today. Yesterday infection count was 7786, today 13,680. Possible sign that wide-spread testing is beginning to take hold. Seven day moving average of growth now nearly 40%/day. I will not forecast what infection totals will be in mid April at this time as the infection rate appears to have a short-term perturbation as testing ramps up.
• Growth in Taiwan's daily infection rate: Could this be due to elite Taiwanese returning to Taiwan after escaping the country in early stages of the disease?
• Most "SARS Countries" are stabilizing at a computed 5% death rate (China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong). Singapore is lower outlier at 0% fatality rate. Hard to believe the Singapore numbers.
• More later…

• US growth in new infections still running at 30% a day (doubling every 2+ days). Anticipate an artificial bump in this rate next week as testing ramps up, assuming testing ramps up.
• On track for 3.2 million infected in the US by Mid-April, 12,000 dead.
• South Korea infection rate dropping dramatically, as is its death rate. End-stage for disease in South Korea? Direct South Korean death rate still 5% and stabilizing at that value
• Taiwan's infection rate spiking. Unknown cause.
• Explosive growth in Germany, France, UK (and US)
• "SARS" countries (Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea) generally doing well with exception of troubling spike in infection rate in Taiwan (and to a lesser extent Singapore)
• Italy spiking in death rates and infections. However, since the data lags this represents the situation prior to lockdown. Need another couple weeks' worth of data before effect of lockdown in Italy is evident.
• World rates reflect end of epidemic in China ("Phase 1") followed by rise of pandemic in rest of the world ("Phase 2"), particularly Western democracies. US & UK particularly poorly prepared for this due to widespread politically-driven institutional failure in both countries.

• United States on track for over one million infections and ~20,000 deaths by mid-April
• Infection rates in United Kingdom, United States, France and Germany currently running at 30%. This implies total number of infections in each country will double every two days.
• Situation in those countries is currently out of control
• France implementing draconian lockdown in response
• Infection rates in Italy responding well to lockdown, currently below 20% day and falling.
• Infection spread in China virtually halted and prior infected either recovered (95%) or dead (5%)
• Data shows that nations hit by in the SARS-CoV-1 epidemic of 2005 well prepared for SARS-CoV-2 (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) Low overall infection rates, low deaths.